USING IMPROVED GREY FORECASTING MODEL TO ESTIMATE THE ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION DEMAND IN VIETNAM

Abstract

Abstract: On the basis of the grey prediction models, this study uses the previous data (from 1980 to 2014) from the website of the World Bank and applies two algorithm models to forecast the electricity consumption in Vietnam. The simulation results show that Fourier Residual Modified GM (1, 1) (abbreviated as FRMGM (1, 1)) is an effective model with an average accuracy of prediction at 99.13%. Therefore, the FRMGM (1, 1) model is strongly suggested for forecasting the electricity consumption demand in Vietnam.

Keywords: electricity consumption demand, GM (1, 1); FRMGM (1, 1), Vietnam

https://doi.org/10.26459/hueuni-jed.v128i5B.4375
PDF

References

  1. J. L. Deng (1982), Control problems of grey systems, Systems and Control Letters, 1, (5), 288–294, doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6911(82)80025-X.
  2. S. Emil and D. Camelia (2011), Complete analysis of bankruptcy syndrome using grey systems theory, Grey Systems: Theory and Application, 1, 19–32, doi: 10.1108/20439371111106704.
  3. W. Hong and C. Fuzhong (2011), The application of grey system theory to exchange rate prediction in the post-crisis era, International Journal of Innovative Management, 2, (2), 83–89, link online: www.ismeip.org/IJIMIP/contents/imip1122/10.pdf.
  4. H. J. Chen (2011), Application of grey system theory in telecare, Computers in Biology and Medicine, 41 (5), 302–306, doi: 10.1016/j.compbiomed.2011.03.007.
  5. J. J. Guo, J. Y. Wu, and R. Z. Wang (2011), A new approach to energy consumption prediction of domestic heat pump water heater based on grey system theory, Energy and Buildings, 43 (6),1273–1279, doi: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2011.01.001.
  6. L. Yi and L. Sifeng (2004), A historical introduction to grey system theory, IEEE international conference on system, man and cybernetics, 2403–2408, doi: 10.1109/ICSMC.2004.1400689.
  7. L. Sifeng, J. Forrest and Y. Yingjie (2011), A brief introduction to grey system theory, IEEE Grey Systems and Intelligent Services (GSIS) IEEE International Conference on, doi: 10.1109/GSIS.2011.6044018.
  8. Y. L Huang and Y. H Lee (2011), Accurately forecasting model for the stochastic volatility data in tourism demand, Modern economy, 2 (5), 823–829, doi: 10.4236/me.2011.25091.
  9. F. L Chu (1998), Forecasting Tourism Demand in Asian-Pacific Countries, Annual of Tourism Research, 25 (3), 597–615, doi: 10.1016/S0160-7383(98)00012-7.
  10. C. C Hsu and C. Y Chen (2003), Application of improved grey prediction model for power demand forecasting, Energy Conversion and management, 44, 2241–2249,
  11. doi: 10.1016/S0196-8904(02)00248-0.
  12. J. Kang and H. Zhao (2012), Application of Improved Grey Model in Long-term Load Forecasting of Power Engineering, Systems Engineering Procedia, 3, 85–91,
  13. doi: 10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.012.
  14. E. Kayacan, B. Ulutas, and O. Kaynak(2010), Grey system theory-based models in time series prediction, Expert Systems with Applications, 37,1784–1789,
  15. doi: 10.1016/j.eswa.2009.07.064.
  16. M. Askari and H. Askari (2011), Time Series Grey System Prediction-based Models: Gold Price Forecasting, Trends in Applied Sciences Research, 6, 1287–1292,
  17. doi: 10.3923/tasr.2011.1287.1292.
  18. G. Gemmill (1986), The forecasting performance of stock options on the London Traded Option Markets, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 13 (4), 535–546,
  19. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-5957.1986.tb00516.x.
  20. L. C. Tsai and Y. S. Yu (2004), Forecast of the output value of Taiwan's IC industry using the Grey forecasting model, International Journal of Computer Applications in Technology, 19, (1), 23 – 27, doi: 10.1504/IJCAT.2004.003657.
  21. S. Makridakis (1993), Accuracy measures: Theoretical and practical concerns, International Journal of Forecasting, 9, (4), 527–529, doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(93)90079-3.
  22. C. D Lewis (1983), Industrial and business forecasting methods, Journal of Forecasting, 2 (2), 194–196, doi.org/10.1002/for.3980020210.
  23. Website of world bank (2017), Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC?locations=VN. Accessed date: 12th, Dec, 2016.