ẢNH HƯỞNG CỦA DÒNG VỐN NƯỚC NGOÀI, ĐỘ MỞ THƯƠNG MẠI VÀ NGUỒN VỐN CON NGƯỜI ĐẾN TĂNG TRƯỞNG KINH TẾ Ở VIỆT NAM

Abstract

Nghiên cứu phân tích tác động của dòng vốn nước ngoài, độ mở thương mại và nguồn vốn con người đến tăng trưởng kinh tế của Việt Nam trong giai đoạn 1989-2019 bằng phương pháp phân phối trễ tự hồi quy ARDL. Kết quả nghiên cứu chỉ ra rằng, có tồn tại mối quan hệ trong dài hạn giữa các biến trong mô hình. Trong mô hình dài hạn, nguồn vốn ODA, độ mở thương mại và nguồn vốn con người tác động tích cực và có ý nghĩa thống kê đối với tăng trưởng kinh tế còn biến vốn vay nước ngoài không có ý nghĩa thống kê. Cũng trong mô hình này, vốn FDI có ý nghĩa thống kê và chưa thể hiện đúng vai trò đối với tăng trưởng kinh tế, tuy nhiên ở mô hình Granger trong ngắn hạn, FDI là một trong những yếu tố tác động vừa trực tiếp và gián tiếp đến tăng trưởng của Việt Nam bởi vì kết quả chỉ ra vốn FDI có tác động nhân quả Granger đến tăng trưởng kinh tế, độ mở thương mại và nguồn vốn con người. Vì vậy, Việt Nam nên có những chính sách phù hợp để tận dụng hiệu quả của nguồn vốn nước ngoài, tuy nhiên cũng không nên lệ thuộc quá nhiều vào đó mà phát huy những nhân tố nội tại như nguồn vốn con người, thương mại và nguồn vốn trong nước để phát triển kinh tế một cách bền vững.

https://doi.org/10.26459/hueunijed.v131i5A.6600

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