FORECASTING DROUGHT IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURAL LAND USE BY USING GIS AND REMOTE SENSING
Vol. 130 No. 3C (2021), Original Article
Vol. 130 No. 3C (2021)

FORECASTING DROUGHT IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURAL LAND USE BY USING GIS AND REMOTE SENSING

Original Article
https://doi.org/10.26459/hueunijard.v130i3C.6084
Published 2021-05-27
  • Tran Thi Phuong+−
  • Nguyen Bich Ngoc
  • Nguyen Hoang Khanh Linh
  • Nguyen Thi Hong Mai
  • Huynh Van Chuong
Tran Thi Phuong
Trường ĐH NL
Nguyen Bich Ngoc
Nguyen Hoang Khanh Linh
Nguyen Thi Hong Mai
Huynh Van Chuong
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Keywords

Agricultural land use
drought
forecast
GIS
remote sensing
Bac Tra My

Abstract

The prolonged drought due to climate change has significantly affected the agricultural production of rural communities in the mountainous and plain areas of Vietnam. We use the standardized precipitation index (SPI) combined with Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) to simulate and forecast the impacts of drought on agricultural land use in Bac Tra My district, Quang Nam province, in the study. The data were set up for the scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. We also applied the focus group discussion, in-depth interview, and field survey for data cross-checking to ensure highly reliable predictions. We came to four levels of drought: normal, mild, moderate, and severe drought in the 2016–2035 Summer–Autumn crops. Severe drought will occur on a large scale for both scenarios for five types of agricultural land use: paddy, annual crop, perennial, afforestation, and aquacultural land. From the findings, local authorities can consider adapting and mitigating measures to climate change in agricultural land use planning.

https://doi.org/10.26459/hueunijard.v130i3C.6084
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