LULC change
remote sensing
LULC prediction


Evaluation of land use and land cover change (LULC) is necessary for densely vegetated areas like Huong Hoa district, Quang Tri province. It is a basis for sustainable development strategies. Therefore, the study aims to evaluate the LULC change in the 10-year period of 2013–2023 by using Landsat 8 satellite image data with the Maximum Likelihood Classification method and to predict future LULC changes. The LULC maps for 2013, 2018, and 2023 are accurate, with Kappa coefficients of 0.82–0.85. In the period of 2013–2023, the dense vegetation area tended to decrease by 1.4%. The decrease was mainly due to the transition to sparse vegetation cover. Bare land increased by 0.5%, and the built-up area decreased by 0.6%. Meanwhile, the water bodies changed slightly. The prediction of LULC change with the CA-ANN model in the QGIS MOLUSCE plugin is based on the history of LULC change and two spatial variables: DEM and distance to the road. The accuracy of the CA-ANN model is satisfactory, with an overall accuracy of 86% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.76. In the simulated LULC of 2033, dense vegetation is predicted to keep a higher decrease (2%) in the area compared with the LULC of 2023. Sparse vegetation steadily increased by 1.3% over the subsequent 10 years. Similarly, the built-up area, water boddies, and bare land extended slightly by 0.5, 0.1, and 0.1%, respectively. The CA-ANN model in the QGIS MOLUSCE plugin is suitable for the simulated LULC changes for the studied area.



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