Developing a commune-level climate risk assessment index: An approach based on the IPCC framework and the Fuzzy Delphi Method

Keywords

bộ chỉ số
cấp xã
phát triển nông thôn
phương pháp Fuzzy Delphi
rủi ro khí hậu set of indicators
commune level
rural development
Fuzzy Delphi
climate risk

Abstract

As defined by the IPCC, climate risk results from the interaction between hazards, exposure, and vulnerability, causing negative impacts on sustainable development in rural regions. However, assessments at the commune level are still constrained by the lack of scientifically grounded and systematically selected quantitative indicators. This study aims to develop and refine a set of commune-level climate risk indicators through expert consultation using the Fuzzy Delphi method. An initial set of 50 indicators was established based on theoretical frameworks and practical considerations. Through consultation with 31 experts, 45 indicators were retained according to predefined consensus criteria. The results show that the Fuzzy Delphi method is effective in addressing uncertainty in expert judgments and improving the reliability of indicator selection. The proposed indicator set provides a scientific foundation for assessing climate risk at the commune level and offers practical support for rural development planning and climate change adaptation.

https://doi.org/10.26459/hueunijard.v135i3B.8429