Forecasting rice area, yield and production of Vietnam: ARIMA model approach
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mô hình ARIMA
dự báo
diện tích lúa
năng suất lúa
sản lượng lúa
Việt Nam ARIMA model
rice area
rice yield
rice production


This paper analyzes and forecasts rice area, yield, and production of Vietnam by 2030 using                  Box–Jenkins ARIMA model. The study uses time series data over the 1990–2021 period compiled from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam. The statistical summary shows that in 2021, the total rice-cultivated area is 7.24 million ha, with an average yield of 6.06 tonnes/ha and a total rice production of 43.85 million tonnes. Over the 1990–2021 period, rice yield and production slightly increase, with an average annual increase of 2.10% and 2.70%, respectively; the rice-cultivated area also increases, but at a lower rate (0.58%) and it tends to decrease from 2013 onwards. The forecasted results show that by 2030, the rice-cultivated area will continue to decrease by approximately 0.8 million ha, to 6.42 (4.17; 8.67) million ha. While, rice yield and production will increase and reach 6.90 (6.26; 7.53) tonnes/ha and 46.60 (36.02; 57.19) million tonnes, respectively. This study suggests that in the next decade, policies related to rice production should focus on promoting the improvements in rice yield and profits instead of expanding the rice-cultivated area. The improvement of production efficiency and the adoption of advanced technologies would be appropriate directions.
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