ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION: EVIDENCE FROM CO₂ EMISSIONS EFFICIENCY IN VIETNAM

Abstract

This study examines the drivers of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions efficiency in Vietnam, focusing on the relationship between economic growth (GDP–gross domestic product), industrial output (IND), access to electricity (ELC–proportion of population with reliable and affordable electricity), and urbanization (URB– share of population living in urban areas). We employ time‑series econometric methods on annual data for Vietnam (1990–2020). The method of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model are employed for estimating. The ARDL framework is used to capture both short–run dynamics and long‑run equilibrium relationships. Key findings show that long‑run electricity access is significantly associated with lower CO₂ emissions intensity, while long‑run urbanization significantly raises emissions intensity. Historical persistence of emissions is also evident. These results suggest that policies promoting clean electricity expansion and sustainable urban planning can reduce CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP while supporting development.